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🌪️ SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK – MONDAY, MAY 19, 2025
SPC Risk Level: MODERATE (Level 4 of 5)
Valid through 7 AM CDT Tuesday

📍 Major Cities in Risk Zones
🔴 MODERATE Risk (5.3M people): Oklahoma City, OK, Tulsa, OK, Springfield, MO, Norman, OK, Broken Arrow, OK
🟠 ENHANCED Risk (12.6M people): Dallas, TX, Fort Worth, TX, Kansas City, MO, Arlington, TX, Wichita, KS
🟡 SLIGHT Risk (16.8M people): Nashville, TN, Omaha, NE, St. Louis, MO, Lincoln, NE, Des Moines, IA
🟢 MARGINAL Risk (18.7M people): Austin, TX, Memphis, TN, Shreveport, LA, Knoxville, TN, Huntsville, AL

🌪️ Tornado Risk Zones
🟥 15% Tornado Risk with Hatched Area (EF2+ potential): Oklahoma City, OK, Tulsa, OK, Norman, OK, Broken Arrow, OK, Fort Smith, AR
🟧 10% Tornado Risk with Hatched Area: Dallas, TX, Fort Worth, TX, Kansas City, MO, Arlington, TX, Wichita, KS
🟤 5% Tornado Risk: Omaha, NE, St. Louis, MO, Lincoln, NE, Des Moines, IA, Little Rock, AR
🟢 2% Tornado Risk: Austin, TX, Memphis, TN, Shreveport, LA, Sioux Falls, SD, Cedar Rapids, IA

What the Percentages Mean
A 15% tornado risk means a 1 in 7 chance of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the zone—with strong, long-track tornadoes possible.
The hatched area indicates increased confidence in significant EF2+ tornadoes, especially in central OK and nearby portions of KS/AR.

📝 Overview
A severe weather outbreak is expected across the central and southern Plains into the Ozarks today, featuring all modes of severe weather.
This includes strong tornadoes, destructive winds, and giant hail, especially across central and eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and southwest Missouri.

⛈️ Hazards Include
🌪️ Strong, long-track tornadoes (EF2+ likely)
🧊 Very large hail (2"–4" possible with splitting supercells)
💨 Widespread severe winds, some potentially exceeding 75 mph

🕓 Timeline
🕒 Midday–Early Afternoon: Storms begin firing across eastern OK and southeast KS
🕓 3–7 PM CDT: Tornado risk peaks as supercells mature over central OK and move east
🌆 6–10 PM CDT: Additional supercells develop along the dryline in TX/OK; damaging wind threat expands
🌒 Overnight: Convection may organize into clusters or MCSs moving east into MO/AR with continued wind/tornado threats

📌 Regional Notes
🔴 Central OK to Southeast KS: Highest confidence corridor for long-track tornadoes and giant hail
🟠 Red River Valley and North TX: Uncertainty in storm initiation, but extreme instability supports a dangerous environment
🟡 Southern IL to Appalachians: Later storms may produce large hail and wind, especially in supercell clusters

⚠️ Stay Weather-Aware
This is a potentially life-threatening severe weather day for the central Plains, especially Oklahoma and southeast Kansas.
Be ready to act quickly if a warning is issued. Review your tornado safety plan, stay off roads during peak hours, and have multiple reliable ways to receive alerts.

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In-Vehicle
Driver, Man-of-Action - ‪@ReedTimmerWx‬
Navigator, Man-of-Music - @localmanweatherofficial
Social, Man-of-People - @EdgarTheStormChaser

Studio
Host, Man-of-Mystery - @brianvotoole
Co-Host, Man-of-Brady (StormCat5) - ‪@StormFrontFreaks‬

And HUGE Thanks to RED EARTH TECH! - https://www.red-earth.tech/