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Daniel Davis / Deep Dive

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Russia's objectives in Ukraine have remained consistent since the war began:

Demilitarization of Ukraine (reduce its military forces drastically)

Denazification (remove political and military leaders Russia sees as hostile)

Protection of Russian-speaking populations in Ukraine

Full military defeat of the Ukrainian government ("Kiev regime") — not just capturing territory, but replacing the government.

Putin and other Russian officials (like Lavrov, Gerasimov, and Peskov) have repeated these demands from February 2022 to the present, in official speeches and negotiations.

Throughout the conflict:

Russia offered a peace deal in April 2022 (Istanbul), which included Ukraine accepting heavy military cuts and political changes.

Ukraine, backed by Western leaders like Boris Johnson, rejected it.

After Ukraine’s failed 2023 counteroffensive, Russia resumed military advances in 2024.

Currently, Russia says it will negotiate only if Ukraine withdraws from four occupied regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson) and accepts the original demands.

Trump reportedly gave both sides an ultimatum for a ceasefire within 10 days or he would "walk away" from trying to negotiate a peace.

However, Ukrainian political realities (including internal nationalist pressure) make it almost impossible for Zelensky to accept Russia’s terms.

If Ukraine doesn't surrender to Russia’s conditions, Russia will continue fighting militarily until it achieves full victory.

The speaker argues that Western leaders who believe Russia will accept less are detached from reality, because Russia has repeatedly made its red lines clear and won’t back down.

Finally, Russia has an interest in normalizing relations with the U.S. after the war, but only after securing its national security goals first.

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