👉 In the Black Sea, a Romanian Navy dredger was hit by a drifting sea mine it was attempting to defuse in bad weather approximately 25 nm NE Constanta. There were no casualties and only minimal damage to the vessel. There is a moderate risk of sea mines in the western Black Sea, and coastal states continue operations to defuse mines in the region. In addition, Russia has criticised the Black Sea grain deal claiming that instead of sending shipments to developing countries to mitigate the humanitarian disaster, shipments were being redirected to EU states. Turkey later expressed similar concerns. France and Romania have agreed to a deal to increase Ukrainian grain exports to developing countries. These developments underscore that the grain deal is still fragile, and re-negotiations are possible in the short-to-medium term. Nonetheless, Russia and Turkey have commit- ted to honour the current agreement at this time.

👉 In the Aegean Sea, on 11 September, the Greek Coast Guard fired warning shots at a Comoros Flagged Ro-Ro vessel 11nm SW of the Turkish Island of Bozcaada. The Greek coastguard confirmed that it fired ‘warning shots’ as the captain of the cargo vessel refused to allow an inspection after it was observed ‘moving suspiciously’ in Greek territorial waters off the island of Lesbos. Greece frequently conducts boardings in this region as it is a known route for smuggling Mideast migrants to the EU. This is the latest escalation in tensions between Turkey and Greece which have heightened in recent weeks due to allegations of airspace violations and militarisation of Aegean islands.

👉 In Libya, there are reports of significant mobilisation of pro-Bashagha forces on the Western outskirts of Tripoli. Pro-Bashagha armed groups, who have recently been driven out of Tripoli, have converged in Al-Aziziyah and Zintan. There are reports that forces loyal to General Haftar have joined the camp at Al-Aziziyah despite previous claims that he would remain neutral in the clashes. Dbeibah is similarly mobilising forces reportedly armed with Turkish TB2 drones to pre-empt the attacks in the Wershefana district. There is highly likely to be clashes on the Western outskirts of Tripoli in the short-term. Whilst initially these clashes will likely be distanced from Tripoli port infrastructure an increase in the port risk profile is possible in the short-to-medium term.

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